Friday, March 27, 2009

Economy Update

-----Money isn't everythin but it is important-----


The Economy
There was a slight glimmer of hope in the February durable goods orders released on Wednesday. Factory orders for the big-ticket items (manufactured goods expected to last at least 3 years) increased 3.4%. This was the first monthly increase in seven months and the largest increase since December 2007. Unfortunately, data in this series tends to be volatile with rebounds frequently surfacing after a couple months of declines. Nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, increased 6.6% for the month, but followed heavy losses the previous two months. There might be room for cautious optimism as fiscal stimulus and monetary easing may be reflected in the increase but it is doubtful that the decline in manufacturing has ended. (Dismal Science, Wachovia 3/25/09)

February home sales, both new and existing, were higher in February. Existing home sales rose 5.1% to an annual pace of 4.72 million. The market continues to be driven by distressed sales which accounted for 45% of February's total sales. Despite all the distressed sales the median price of a single-family home rose slightly to just under $165,000. February's median price is down 15% from year ago levels. The supply of existing homes on the market remained flat at 9.7 months, but the supply of condos is a very high 14.7 months. New home sales rose 4.7% in February to an annual pace of 337,000. While the increase is a positive, the numbers are coming off a record low sales pace in January. February's new home sales remain very weak and are 75.7% below the peak of July 2005. Inventory levels are improving, however, falling 2.9% for the month representing a 12.2 month supply. Prices continue downward with the median price 18% below last year's level. Conditions appear to be improving and sales are thought to be at or near the bottom but aren't expected to fully stabilize for several more months. (Wachovia 3/23/09, Dismal Science, Commerce Department 3/25/09)

The final revision for 4Q08's GDP was announced on Thursday. The contraction in real GDP for the quarter was revised slightly downward to a -6.3% annual rate from the previous estimate of -6.2%. There were downward revisions to inventories, service exports, and nonresidential construction. Somewhat offsetting these were a downward revision to service imports which boosted growth and an upward revision of goods exports. Projections for 1Q09 GDP continue to be in the negative 5% range. (Dismal Science, 3/26/09)

For the week ending March 21 initial jobless claims increased by 8,000 to 652,000, in line with expectations, while the previous week was adjusted downward by 2,000. The numbers bring the four-week moving average down slightly to 649,000. The claims data point to a continued rapid deterioration in the labor market. Hiring is also slower resulting in continuing claims to increase to 5.56 million. The smoothed four-week moving average for continuing claims is 5.331 million. For the time being the pace of layoffs is continuing but not accelerating. As a proportion of the work force the number of people receiving benefits is at its highest level since May 1983. (Dismal Science, Yahoo Finance, 3/26/09)

No comments: